What does the future hold for the Conservative Party?
Conservatives have been in power for almost a decade now, and as long as we have Jeremy Corbyn, that’s unlikely to change. They’re a party who are staying at the top for now. In the wake of Theresa May’s power vacuum, Tories are now almost spoiled for choice as to the next leader. If the Conservative Party’s authority can withstand the blows it took when May was at the helm, all the next leader has to do is be better than her. There are ten candidates all together, each with their own personality and appeal, although there are three that stand out; Boris Johnson, Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove.
The first of these three is someone I admittedly hold something of a soft spot for, and according to most sources, stands the highest chance of winning. Boris is known as a brash and divisive figure, prone to the occasional gaffe and bout of womanising to say the least, but through it all has managed to remain popular. It seems no matter what he does or says, it all bounces off him like bullets. Johnson undoubtedly has a kind of charisma that endears him to the population in a way no other British politician has ever really managed. All the PR muck ups and zip lining incidents only serve to make him more relatable, more human like he’s one of us, which is something he’s been been more than happy to play up for the cameras. He’s also someone who’s never seemed fully committed to his convictions, placing a bit more value on his own self-interest. Despite this, it’s my belief that out of the three, he’s the most likely to deliver a Hard Brexit.
Boris has never made it a secret that he’s certainly to the right of the Conservative Party. When working for the Daily Telegraph, he was one of Margaret Thatcher’s favourite journalists, believe it or not. His Euroscepticism has always been worn on his sleeve, consistently voting against the EU and has even called for a referendum as far back as 2009. Hard line Brexiteers have often called for a candidate who really staunchly believes in Brexit, and if that’s what they want in lieu of a leadership campaign from Mogg, they needn’t look much further than Boris.
We can definitely expect a swift exit form the EU, come the 31 October, unless we withdraw the Article 50 Notice. Few could see Johnson holding another referendum as he’s been repeatedly quoted as saying he would not extend the deadline any further. For Boris, Brexit really does mean Brexit and if need-be, it could mean No Deal, which could have disastrous consequences for the UK’s relationship with Europe in terms of trade and we’d also run out of food fairly quickly. Provided that a Johnson Brexit went well, we could expect tax cuts across the board and welfare. What would be the most spectacular thing would be if he were able to actually deliver on that £350 million figure he pledged would be saved for the NHS. Pulling that off alone would win at least the next two elections if he wanted to go for it.
But if you’re a little bit weary of the man, or don’t trust him any further than you can throw him, that’s more than understandable then you should probably look somewhere else. Also, notwithstanding his most recent comments, a Johnson Premiership would likely lead to much closer relationship with Trump and the US and a more distant one with Europe. Take from that what you will. So, if you don’t quite buy into Johnson’s persona as the old-fashioned, unadulterated patriot, waving the Union Jack with his fingers crossed behind his back, there’s another option. I give you Jeremy Hunt.
Jeremy is notable for many reasons other than having a name that tends to lend itself to unfortunate mispronunciation by broadcasters. Hunt started out on the side of Remain in 2016 but has since changed his position, which suggests the man tends to align his official views with the changes of the wind. Some have called Boris a slippery politician, but Jeremy has gathered a much greater reputation at this point for saying one thing and doing the opposite, one of Parliament’s biggest champions of broken promises. However, he could be just what we need for a more measured negotiation with the EU. Hunt has stated he does not want a No Deal Brexit and would probably do more to avoid this happening than Boris, though probably for the mere preservation of his career, rather than the principle.
Based on his previous performance as Culture Secretary, we could perhaps look forward to faster Broadband, but his track record as the Health Secretary paints a much worse picture. Under Hunt, the NHS saw growing waiting lists and fewer and fewer applications from nurses and doctors. For many, especially Junior Doctors, this combined with an empty pledge of a ‘paperless’ NHS, this has made Hunt an unlikable and untrustworthy candidate, though he sees himself as the ‘serious candidate’ and is an odds-on favourite.
Our other most likely candidate is of course everyone’s favourite former Education Secretary, Michael Gove. I’d like to include myself in the group of people who see Gove as the most sensible and dependable candidate we have to deliver a beneficial Brexit deal. Some say his recent and rather embarrassing cocaine scandal has blown his chances, if you’ll excuse the pun. However, it doesn’t seem to have affected his chances much. If anything, it seems to have improved his odds, much like his former Oxford colleague, Johnson who may be appointed a place in Gove’s Cabinet if he gets in, meaning a Gove premiership would also be a Gove-Johnson double bill. If this is on cards, and it looks like it might be, then it’s quite reassuring that the two are fully in favour of Policy Exchange, a charity that seeks to provide better housing for disadvantaged communities and improve education and healthcare. Housing has shown to be one of the top items on Johnson’s agenda, and he aims to (await article from Policy Exchange, Lynton Crosby).
If Gove and Johnson are currently the two most likely candidates, then it looks like we may finally be headed towards a definitive break with the EU, in whatever form that may take. Whether you’re against or for Brexit, I think we can all agree we’d like to see the back of this issue by now so we can move onto the next hot button issue, which may well end up being another attempt at Scottish independence.
The Tories may have lost a lot of credibility in recent years, what with Theresa May’s constant dilly-dallying on Brexit, culminating in what was a genuinely hard to watch resignation speech. However, for as long as Corbyn remains the head of the Labour party, the Conservatives will stay in power for the forsseable future, as they’re the only realistically electable party we have at the moment. Though they had better get their act together sooner or later, as there is now a looming threat of the Brexit Party, the Lib Dems and even the Greens growing in support, catching them up and if the Conservatives aren’t careful, they will fall out of favour forever.
