Going Back to Normal

Just three months ago, the average citizen was blissfully unaware of a deadly pandemic about to submerge entire economies into utter chaos. They were most likely enjoying stable job security and looking forward to a spate of blockbusters set to hit theatres in the coming months. Not only that, but they were free to wander and picnic in the park with friends, having no clue that such gatherings were soon to be put on hold indefinitely, along with almost everything else they took for granted.

Three short months later, they’ve found themselves forced to spend their days on their sofa, watching the news hoping to hear word on when the nationwide house arrest might end. It’s no wonder since everyone also can’t wait to see their friends again and soak up the sun on a park bench with an ice-cold beer. Many are wondering when they might finally be able to go on that holiday they’ve been saving up for the past nine months. Unfortunately, they aren’t getting much encouragement, as it seems all the airline and cruise companies they rely on are in dire need of government help.

For now, we can only speculate as to when we can finally return to normal. Any attempts to offer answers on this matter are just that: speculation. It all depends on various factors. Firstly, governments must decide at the right time, which is critical. If they lift the lockdown too early, there will be a new spike in infections, bringing health services to their knees. Too late, and the economic damage may take years to reverse. Currently, optimistic predictions are placing the lift on lockdown somewhere in late May.

So we don’t know exactly when we will be able to resume our lives. What’s more, we don’t know what our lives may look like the foreseeable. Many believe that corona may become a part of our lives, another sort of seasonal flu that we may have to put up with until we find a vaccine. Does this mean we will have to ramp up testing in the coming years, meaning a COVID test becomes part and parcel of entering and leaving a hospital or any other building, a bit like airport security?

It’s possible, if not more than a bit unlikely, and such measures surely wouldn’t stay in place forever. What about our regular social events like concerts and festivals, which now won’t take place again until September? Even if there are no stringent rules, it’s possible people may feel a little uneasy about going into crowded zones yet again.

While we’re on the subject of entertainment, we have to address the delays of almost every big-ticket film set to come out this year. Because of these delays, they may see a huge hole punched in their box office, slowing down Hollywood’s output for the next couple of years. Many studios have opted to simply release, meaning coronavirus may have just accelerated the decline of cinema in favour of Netflix, Amazon Prime, and Hulu.

Social distancing measures may persist, for example, a limit of gatherings to ten people may stay in place for some weeks or even months. So house parties may have to go with pretty low numbers for quite some time. It also means pubs and restaurants will put a severe cap on the number of occupants.

So this may come all as rather stark news to the average person looking for information about when they can return to normal, and just what normal may look like. The truth is, normal as we knew it, might be a long way off. It’s probably going to be a gradual process, during which restrictions are lifted and people regain their freedoms slowly.

I suspect it won’t be until September when things are finally back to the way they were. Even then, many won’t be able to return to their jobs and will find themselves queuing at the job centre in the millions. Already, the US has seen a record number of jobless claims of 6.6 million people, a terrible statistic that would have been unthinkable three months ago. It’s going to be a long fight for governments to combat the fallout from this disease, and it will cost trillions in loans and packages for small businesses and the self-employed.

But there’s cause for optimism. Demand will return to normal, meaning after a long and probably painful recovery, our economy will return to its previous heights, even if it takes years. However, the corona vaccine will be deemed essential to give to children of all ages once it's made readily available. Governments around the world, particularly the US and UK, will almost certainly view China with a more suspicious eye, and Boris Johnson may even reverse the deal made with Huawei to supply the UK’ 5G. China’s rise to global superpower status may have taken a hit.

When we return to our regular lives, I sense we may view the world inherently differently, and will no longer take the things for granted that we used to. No longer will we take it as a given that our plans won’t be put on hold when another crisis demands the preservation of human life.